Can gold be considered a ‚safe haven‘ investment?
On behalf of our clients, onValues has recently assessed the role of gold as part of a long-term investment strategy. Results of our analysis using price data for the last 20 years indicate that gold (measured in US-Dollars) did not outperform other ‘safe haven’ assets such as high quality government bonds in periods of pronounced stock market volatility. For non-US investors a volatile and generally weakening US-Dollar introduced exchange rate risks, frequently wiping out the occasional gains of gold holdings. We therefore cannot validate the common belief that gold is a good portfolio insurance based on recent history – especially for European investors. Moreover, the environmental and social impact of the gold industry needs to be taken into account. In extreme crisis situations, such as a global war or the collapse of global financial systems, gold could play a role as a store of value. For clients attaching a high likelihood to such events it could make sense to hold significant amounts of gold, but this would require a well thought through implementation plan, factoring in choices like physical denomination (coins, bars, jewellery), storage location (bank, external storage, at home) and security aspects when accessing and using the gold during crisis times.