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Using scenario and contingency planning to prepare for the future

onValues has developed a set of long-term (20 years) and mid-term (3 years) scenarios as an input for developing investment strategies and contingency plans for clients. The long-term scenarios are used for strategy development and capacity building, the mid-term scenarios for implementing capital protection (and enhancement) strategies in the event of expected market dislocations. Whereas most investment advisors and asset managers focus only on economic data when defining investment strategies, onValues takes a broader view. Its long-term scenarios include assumptions on geo-political, economic, trade, innovation, demographic, social and environmental developments whose interaction then leads to certain outcomes at the level of the economy and of specific asset classes. The mid-term scenarios focus on turning points in market cycles that are triggered by economic realities and by the behaviour and perceptions of market participants. A system to monitor changes in market state that includes dimensions such as asset valuations, investor sentiment and internal market dynamics is used. onValues then works with clients to define measures aimed at protecting capital which is particularly important given the current risk of asset bubbles.

A different approach to financial market analysis

onValues has recently strengthened its macroeconomic and financial market research capabilities. The company now provides guidance on financial markets outlook based on a multi-dimensional analysis framework. Its approach aimed at better understanding mid- to long-term developments differs substantially from the short-term (3 to 6 months) focus of ‘market outlooks’ provided by banks and traditional advisors. This is in line with onValues’ focus on long-term orientated clients. Therefore onValues relies on the use of long-term data and valuation methodologies which have been proven to be robust over many investment cycles, i.e. decades. As an additional layer the framework monitors behavioral aspects of market participants thus capturing valuable information usually unrecognized in traditional financial market analysis. The onValues framework’s main goal is not to ‘time’ markets but to help clients identify ‘preventable surprises’ that can lead to substantial wealth destruction or unrealistic financial expectations.

Strengthening mission alignment of endowments at Swiss foundations

onValues has in the past months continued its work in support of the foundation sector in Switzerland. Besides providing advice to several foundations for developing and implementing mission aligned investment strategies, onValues is also engaged in sector wide capacity building efforts. Ivo Knoepfel is an independent advisor of SwissFoundations' (the national association's) working group on Finances which regularly deals with mission investing matters. In the Swiss Foundations Report 2015 (only available in German and French), Nathalie Moral from the Arcas Foundation and Ivo Knoepfel present results of their recent survey of Swiss foundations and a feasibility study for program related investments in Switzerland. Ivo Knoepfel was also a speaker at the Swiss Foundations Symposium held in Zürich on 3 June 2015.

Engaging leading families and their nextgens

onValues is active in several international networks supporting leading families invest their wealth according to their values and for positive impact. In April, together with one of our partners, we organised for the second time a workshop on sustainable investing for 'next generation' wealthholders from six different European countries.  On 20-21 April, Ivo Knoepfel was a speaker at the pymwymic Family Days. He briefed a group of 30 family principals and over 50 family office representatives on strategies to better align family wealth with sustainability drivers and impact goals. pymwymic is one of the leading family networks in the field.

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